Getting to 90% accurate MMM Model – Just Crown The Highest Spend Channel as Hero.
I am about to tell a hack which perhaps some people already know.
You can get to a 90% accurate MMM Model (both statistically and business wise) just by predicting the highest spend channel as Hero – The biggest contributor to your KPI.
But the real skill of a MMM vendor is to identify and rank the other channels.
They help you answer questions like :
– Which mid-tier channel is actually pulling weight?
– Which low-spend channel is punching above its size?
– Where are the hidden synergies?
– Where is saturation killing incremental returns?
📌 MMM is beyond the obvious
Most of MMM is about the non obvious. Identifying second order contributors, interaction effects (search * YouTube, CTV*Search etc.) Some Macro economic events (Wars, Tariffs) that affect your brand. Piecing together these ‘explainers’ is the toughest task in MMM.
📌 The Surprise Index
If you are a client, and if your model tells you: “Your highest spend channel is your biggest contributor”.
Ask: “What else did I learn that I didn’t already know?”
If there are new things that you learnt, chances are that the vendor did a good job.
Getting the top contributor right is easy. Getting the rest right is where the science is and one requires a high powered MMM for that.
